(01-10-2022, 09:45 AM)Scooterd Wrote:There are a few times a year when I feel like I understand where sentiment will be in a month. Seems like I am right about 65% of the time if I am selective enough. That is actually good enough to trade for a few bucks and win more than I lose. Problem is I get bored and will push my luck and make a few bets when I am only about confident enough for a 45-55% win rate. And that is why my speculative bets are almost always very small, because it's just for fun and I might have to ride it out a long time to be back to even.(01-10-2022, 08:33 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Here s a more on topic prediction that isn't much of a prediction. The analysts and brokerage house are now scared. After years of just raising price targets, just to save face they are going to downgrade stocks everyday with conservative outlooks. That might have been a little more useful months ago as nothing has really changed what wasn't predicted six months ago. I can't even count how many of my holding had/have price targets 30% higher than today, and many of them still do but the adjustment is surely coming.
IMHO for the most part - What others have said about forecasters and forecasting , Is the same I hold about market analysts. No one knows the future - No one.
“The foresight of financial experts was, as so often, a poor guide to the future.”John Kenneth Galbraith
Those who have knowledge don’t predict; those who predict don’t have knowledge - Lao Tzu
Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable- Peter Bernstein
I never think of the future – it comes soon enough -Albert Einstein
The future you shall know when it has come; before then forget it - Aeschylus
Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future - Warren Buffett.
I'll catch myself up on injuries and consult my magic eight ball for football guesses very soon. We got you down for the Packers win it all lol.
