10-19-2015, 12:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-19-2015, 12:24 PM by Dividendsrule.)
I appreciate your article, and I appreciate your posting your point of view, Eric.
I think I am attracted to the "big boats", and I don't mind waiting until WMT accomplishes what they want to achieve. I want to get in on big retail without buying AMZN...And I like the tried and true WMT model, with their willingness to (try to) evolve into the future. You, and others are emphasizing a lack of growth, but I think I am more lenient...There have been periods of low growth in many of the blue chips on the DGI list, but that wasn't a reason to sell, in my opinion. As I recall there were a few years in a row in the 1980s when PG only raised the dividend a couple of percentage points a year.
If a person literally thinks there will be a structural change, that would probably be a reason to sell. Like for instance, let's say there was a glove that allowed people to wipe themselves in the bathroom, eliminating a large part of KMB's revenue stream. I am seeing WMT try to innovate to be a part of the future...Or, there might be a structural change killing their business, arguably?
So to your argument, with the churn and commoditization in telephony I could see T growth muted at 4-5%, plus all of their debt, and O can only grow as fast as they acquire more leases and raise rents, probably 4-5% long term max, but when WMT rights their ship again and figures out how to eat into AMZN, I could see double digit raises again (I hope). Plus when inflation really hits in a number of years in the future, and they can raise the prices and margins. Obviously "hope is not a strategy" but that is my thesis at this time.
EDIT: Lest we forget, lots of buybacks in the next couple of years too should boost dividend growth capabilities.
Again I appreciate your perspective.
Does anyone here think that WMT is an obsolete old dinosaur and absolutely going the way of the Dodo?
I think I am attracted to the "big boats", and I don't mind waiting until WMT accomplishes what they want to achieve. I want to get in on big retail without buying AMZN...And I like the tried and true WMT model, with their willingness to (try to) evolve into the future. You, and others are emphasizing a lack of growth, but I think I am more lenient...There have been periods of low growth in many of the blue chips on the DGI list, but that wasn't a reason to sell, in my opinion. As I recall there were a few years in a row in the 1980s when PG only raised the dividend a couple of percentage points a year.
If a person literally thinks there will be a structural change, that would probably be a reason to sell. Like for instance, let's say there was a glove that allowed people to wipe themselves in the bathroom, eliminating a large part of KMB's revenue stream. I am seeing WMT try to innovate to be a part of the future...Or, there might be a structural change killing their business, arguably?
So to your argument, with the churn and commoditization in telephony I could see T growth muted at 4-5%, plus all of their debt, and O can only grow as fast as they acquire more leases and raise rents, probably 4-5% long term max, but when WMT rights their ship again and figures out how to eat into AMZN, I could see double digit raises again (I hope). Plus when inflation really hits in a number of years in the future, and they can raise the prices and margins. Obviously "hope is not a strategy" but that is my thesis at this time.
EDIT: Lest we forget, lots of buybacks in the next couple of years too should boost dividend growth capabilities.
Again I appreciate your perspective.
Does anyone here think that WMT is an obsolete old dinosaur and absolutely going the way of the Dodo?