10-19-2021, 09:46 PM
This is the closest I ever watched commodities. Oil seems the most complicated. Only a few countries have spare capacity for now.
Lumber is crazy volatile but can self correct quickly. From $400 per 1000BF to $1700+, back to sub 400 and now near 800. Most of that occurred in 6 months. Mills working overtime to shutting down a few weeks to get it back off 400. It's never been this volatile.
Gold in a 5% range because industrial use is minimal.
Steel historically high but iron ore isn't rare. It won't take years to get fairly cheap.
Copper spiked but that is correctable by the time chips allow auto production.
Looks hopeless but the stocks pulled way back. The market knows.
I do think oil will be the last thing to correct. Looks like only a recession could cool it off. I don't expect that.
Lumber is crazy volatile but can self correct quickly. From $400 per 1000BF to $1700+, back to sub 400 and now near 800. Most of that occurred in 6 months. Mills working overtime to shutting down a few weeks to get it back off 400. It's never been this volatile.
Gold in a 5% range because industrial use is minimal.
Steel historically high but iron ore isn't rare. It won't take years to get fairly cheap.
Copper spiked but that is correctable by the time chips allow auto production.
Looks hopeless but the stocks pulled way back. The market knows.
I do think oil will be the last thing to correct. Looks like only a recession could cool it off. I don't expect that.