12-21-2021, 11:24 AM
I last ran MO's debt in March. Debt:ebitda was 1.88. Pre-Chronos it was around 1. Still not concerning for me - I start to look closer at 2.5 and above. I'll run it again after the 4th quarter ER.
(12-21-2021, 10:46 AM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not sure how they would command any sort of pricing power like they do in tobacco.(12-21-2021, 10:34 AM)Scooterd Wrote: [ -> ]If a Security I have invested in dips significantly I try and determine is this a permanent shift or just short term hurdle. If short term; I Invest more capital.
Me too, so long as the original investing thesis holds. Given the concerns I've expressed above, I am for sure not adding to my MO position soon. Maybe I'd change my tune in 2022 if it becomes clear that is this just short term pain. Anyway, I think there are better opportunities right now, and my DG portfolio is already almost 20 percent tobacco!
Thanks everyone for helping me think this through.
Any thoughts or predictions about MO's marijuana prospects? I think a lot of MO investors are assuming with little basis that this will eventually be a big revenue stream for MO. Maybe, but I'm not as optimistic about it as many people seem to be.
(12-21-2021, 12:01 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not sure how they would command any sort of pricing power like they do in tobacco.
(12-21-2021, 12:58 PM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]They would have distribution advantages that might be advantageous decades from now if the industry consolidates which is not a certainty. I don't use MJ but my friends that do seem to prefer to acquire it in various ways. Some like the boutique atmosphere. Some just use black market sources as they have for many years. I don't see them running to a convenience store to pay any kind of premium price.(12-21-2021, 12:01 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not sure how they would command any sort of pricing power like they do in tobacco.
I agree completely. And for a bunch of other reasons as well, I think the "MO is going to make a lot of money in marijuana" is super wishful thinking. But it is really common thinking!
(12-21-2021, 10:05 PM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]Fenders -- I'm with you. I have lots of friends that use mmj regularly, and it is hard to imagine any of them ever buying Altria / Marlboro joints if there are alternatives available.So you move on and assign a low probability MJ is meaningful for MO soon. They know that as well and are surely working other growth opportunities. It's hard to walk away from that dividend. I'd trim up top if you wish, and never add unless it really dips. I did leave but it wasn't an emergency iMO. The opportunity cost of these high yielders has made me not care if I own them or not.
Ken -- sadly, no. My monthly expenses are REALLY high, thanks to divorce and having a daughter with severe medical issues, not to mention my taste for the finer things in life (lol!). So I don't think dividends will ever cover it all. So for now I am just living off savings (that never got invested) and all dividends get pooled and reinvested to keep the stream growing. With luck, eventually, dividends, pension, and social security (?) will cover most of my expenses once the alimony rolls off in another six years or so. But I'll almost certainly be eating into the principle (selling core shares) before it is all said and done.
That is, unless one of my crypto gambles or zany business ideas pans out. Then it's caviar and health care for everyone!
(12-21-2021, 10:05 PM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]Ken -- sadly, no. My monthly expenses are REALLY high, thanks to divorce and having a daughter with severe medical issues, not to mention my taste for the finer things in life (lol!). So I don't think dividends will ever cover it all. So for now I am just living off savings (that never got invested) and all dividends get pooled and reinvested to keep the stream growing. With luck, eventually, dividends, pension, and social security (?) will cover most of my expenses once the alimony rolls off in another six years or so. But I'll almost certainly be eating into the principle (selling core shares) before it is all said and done.
That is, unless one of my crypto gambles or zany business ideas pans out. Then it's caviar and health care for everyone!
(01-29-2022, 03:47 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Dividend is still covered by FCF.