04-23-2020, 06:24 AM
I'm not familiar with NUE but I did a 5 minute research and it does look cheap. But I also see that the stock price has been in a downward trajectory for over 2 years now, any reason for that?
(04-23-2020, 06:24 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not familiar with NUE but I did a 5 minute research and it does look cheap. But I also see that the stock price has been in a downward trajectory for over 2 years now, any reason for that?
(04-23-2020, 08:36 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]It's an amazing feat that XOM and CVX have also pulled it off in the energy sector. Even a ten year run of Div raises is an accomplishment.(04-23-2020, 06:24 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not familiar with NUE but I did a 5 minute research and it does look cheap. But I also see that the stock price has been in a downward trajectory for over 2 years now, any reason for that?
Steel price has been in a downward trend for two years. Highly cyclical business.
You will find very few dividend aristocrats in the basic materials sector. The low margins and boom/bust nature of the industry results in few companies that can navigate the cycles successfully and continue to pay increasing returns to their shareholders. NUE and SON are the only two that I can think of, off the top of my head.
(04-23-2020, 08:36 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Steel price has been in a downward trend for two years. Highly cyclical business.
(04-23-2020, 09:37 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]It's kind of like this. The industry is very tough. When the storm clouds roll in they find a way to raise the dividend. Meanwhile their competition is trying to sell office furniture in the empty parking lot after they lay off half their employees. That's not much of an exaggeration. Most of the once strong US steel producers are gone or in trouble most of the past few decades.(04-23-2020, 08:36 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Steel price has been in a downward trend for two years. Highly cyclical business.
Somehow their EPS seems to have an OK trajectory though. And that is an "meh, ok" not an "OKAY!". But still pretty decent looking earnings, at least on paper, during the past two years. I'm guessing there was some sort of a one-time fluke in 2018 though with the EPS being that high.
But yeah, this might be a company that I will be keeping my eye on if we can get a red day or two instead of the indexes going up a couple percentages daily.
(04-23-2020, 05:04 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ](04-22-2020, 09:40 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Ray is the only one that is going to keep his hair lol.(04-19-2020, 12:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ](04-19-2020, 10:56 AM)rayray Wrote: [ -> ]And this is why I don't try to play the market--if I feel like I can't own a stock for 10 years I move on to something else. If we are already on the mend, leading to a V recession then I bought through it. If we get another downturn, I'll buy through that one too. U-shaped recession will give us a longer time frame to accumulate.
A U shaped economic recovery seems reasonably certain. The market on the other hand is going to go up 1000pts a week for the rest of our lives. I look very forward to it.
The interesting thing to me is that half of the GICS sectors are trading straight-up U or L-shaped recession priced in. Just look at NUE. Dividend Aristocrat (47 years of DGI growth) steel producer, which has managed to raise the payout through every imaginable market condition for nearly half a century, trading at 2009 lows. Many similar stories in Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and REITs.
The other half are trading V-shaped (especially Tech), even after reporting lackluster earnings and pulling guidance. I'm not touching those.
I still think we retest some recent lows, but the stocks that are currently down 50% from their highs aren't the ones that I think are going to take the biggest beating when that happens. In the meantime, I'm selling covered calls against my SQQQ position that's down 12%.
There are huge inconsistencies in equity prices. There was no proper capitulation. It's like we were a week or two away though at the rate it fell. I continue to sell covered calls very sparingly. It is tempting to sell many more but there is too much risk the beaten up sectors will run 20% and never give you another chance. Like you said, ten year lows for some. The indexes are too dominated by a handful of companies to be a meaningful measure.
(04-26-2020, 06:10 AM)rayray Wrote: [ -> ]The overweight of the indexes by a few huge companies is getting gradually worse. We are almost to the point where ten companies running higher could cause the index to return to ATH, while 300 more are still way off their highs. If the FANG stocks ever capitulate that will be an ugly day for index investors. It would take us down too of course.(04-23-2020, 05:04 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ](04-22-2020, 09:40 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Ray is the only one that is going to keep his hair lol.(04-19-2020, 12:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ](04-19-2020, 10:56 AM)rayray Wrote: [ -> ]And this is why I don't try to play the market--if I feel like I can't own a stock for 10 years I move on to something else. If we are already on the mend, leading to a V recession then I bought through it. If we get another downturn, I'll buy through that one too. U-shaped recession will give us a longer time frame to accumulate.
A U shaped economic recovery seems reasonably certain. The market on the other hand is going to go up 1000pts a week for the rest of our lives. I look very forward to it.
The interesting thing to me is that half of the GICS sectors are trading straight-up U or L-shaped recession priced in. Just look at NUE. Dividend Aristocrat (47 years of DGI growth) steel producer, which has managed to raise the payout through every imaginable market condition for nearly half a century, trading at 2009 lows. Many similar stories in Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and REITs.
The other half are trading V-shaped (especially Tech), even after reporting lackluster earnings and pulling guidance. I'm not touching those.
I still think we retest some recent lows, but the stocks that are currently down 50% from their highs aren't the ones that I think are going to take the biggest beating when that happens. In the meantime, I'm selling covered calls against my SQQQ position that's down 12%.
There are huge inconsistencies in equity prices. There was no proper capitulation. It's like we were a week or two away though at the rate it fell. I continue to sell covered calls very sparingly. It is tempting to sell many more but there is too much risk the beaten up sectors will run 20% and never give you another chance. Like you said, ten year lows for some. The indexes are too dominated by a handful of companies to be a meaningful measure.
Ha! I wish I had the head of hair of my teenage self lol.
Yea...some analyst, can't remember who, said investors have to remember while there are certain types of market recoveries, individual stocks can recover differently independent of the market as a whole.
(05-11-2020, 04:04 PM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Nice day for biotech.
ABBV up 4.7% today, and now just 10% below 52-week highs. Still yields 5.4%, although I think that will be dropping quickly with the AGN deal finalized.
AMGN up 3.3% and now at 52-week highs.
(05-12-2020, 07:32 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ](05-11-2020, 04:04 PM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Nice day for biotech.
ABBV up 4.7% today, and now just 10% below 52-week highs. Still yields 5.4%, although I think that will be dropping quickly with the AGN deal finalized.
AMGN up 3.3% and now at 52-week highs.
ABBV is headed to $100. It’s the best bio to buy on Valuation and yield. BMY headed higher as well. It’s a good space to be in.