(04-20-2020, 09:57 AM)NilesMike Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:35 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]1/21/22 $4 USO Calls this morning at $1.24/contract. Crude at $11/bbl. Wow.
.88 Now
Unbelievable
Oil is going to continue to be a crazy ride. It's not going away and that's about the extent of my predictions today lol.
(04-20-2020, 09:57 AM)NilesMike Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:35 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]1/21/22 $4 USO Calls this morning at $1.24/contract. Crude at $11/bbl. Wow.
.88 Now
Unbelievable
Showing $1.26 now for the 1/21/22 $4 calls. Not sure where you are getting $0.88.
(04-20-2020, 10:08 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:57 AM)NilesMike Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:35 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]1/21/22 $4 USO Calls this morning at $1.24/contract. Crude at $11/bbl. Wow.
.88 Now
Unbelievable
Showing $1.26 now for the 1/21/22 $4 calls. Not sure where you are getting $0.88
He may have looked at JAN2021. It was in the low .90s a few minutes ago. He scared you didn't he?
(04-20-2020, 10:16 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 10:08 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:57 AM)NilesMike Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:35 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]1/21/22 $4 USO Calls this morning at $1.24/contract. Crude at $11/bbl. Wow.
.88 Now
Unbelievable
Showing $1.26 now for the 1/21/22 $4 calls. Not sure where you are getting $0.88
He may have looked at JAN2021. It was in the low .90s a few minutes ago. He scared you didn't he?
LOL, a bit.
Closed out all of my SPY Puts for a 300+% gain. Tax liability to a high yield savings account, similar sized bet to original SPY bet on USO LEAPs, and rest to cash to eventually fund more DGI equity purchases (am in no rush on that one).
(04-20-2020, 11:04 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 10:16 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 10:08 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:57 AM)NilesMike Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:35 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]1/21/22 $4 USO Calls this morning at $1.24/contract. Crude at $11/bbl. Wow.
.88 Now
Unbelievable
Showing $1.26 now for the 1/21/22 $4 calls. Not sure where you are getting $0.88
He may have looked at JAN2021. It was in the low .90s a few minutes ago. He scared you didn't he?
LOL, a bit.
Closed out all of my SPY Puts for a 300+% gain. Tax liability to a high yield savings account, similar sized bet to original SPY bet on USO LEAPs, and rest to cash to eventually fund more DGI equity purchases (am in no rush on that one).
I'm going to keep my SPY puts for awhile. They are down but I bought them for a small hedge and they still serve that purpose. If the market doesn't pull back I'll sell them in a few months before decay gets them too bad. I intend to go long oil again but the method hasn't been decided. Oil is so low that we are about to the point where you can't screw it up as long as you give yourself plenty of time. I am still wary of the majors because they are going to have to do crazy things to pay Divs if oil doesn't triple soon. I'd buy a major that cut the Div, but I need a discount from current SPs.
(04-20-2020, 11:35 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 11:04 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 10:16 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 10:08 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (04-20-2020, 09:57 AM)NilesMike Wrote: [ -> ].88 Now
Unbelievable
Showing $1.26 now for the 1/21/22 $4 calls. Not sure where you are getting $0.88
He may have looked at JAN2021. It was in the low .90s a few minutes ago. He scared you didn't he?
LOL, a bit.
Closed out all of my SPY Puts for a 300+% gain. Tax liability to a high yield savings account, similar sized bet to original SPY bet on USO LEAPs, and rest to cash to eventually fund more DGI equity purchases (am in no rush on that one).
I'm going to keep my SPY puts for awhile. They are down but I bought them for a small hedge and they still serve that purpose. If the market doesn't pull back I'll sell them in a few months before decay gets them too bad. I intend to go long oil again but the method hasn't been decided. Oil is so low that we are about to the point where you can't screw it up as long as you give yourself plenty of time. I am still wary of the majors because they are going to have to do crazy things to pay Divs if oil doesn't triple soon. I'd buy a major that cut the Div, but I need a discount from current SPs.
I considered going long crude directly through futures, but didn't like the prospect of nearly unlimited downside liability with futures contracts. Also looked at options on crude futures, but those only run (currently) through the November, 2020 contracts, so USO LEAPs it was, contango and all. At least the risk is limited to what I paid for the options contracts.
I think my next side bet that doesn't involve just purchasing equities is to go long Yen by selling USD/JPY. Cash-secured mini-lots only. I refuse to do margin.
It's not that hard to find sufficient risk without resorting to futures. I wouldn't want any part of NOV oil options either. If the virus flares up this fall we might be right back to $20 oil.
Thought about buying some USO shares straight up since May oil is two bucks a barrel lol. I'm a creature of habit so I sold some USO 3.50 covered puts instead. Expire Friday. I don't want to wait around long for my answer lol. I'd go deeper in a long play if I fully understood what makes USO underlying shares move.
This is the craziest thing I've ever saw in any commodity. I'll stand by for Tweets.
Holy shit, is oil under a dollar a barrel right now? Am I seeing things?
How are the oil company share prices not tanking along side??
And what is the most straightforward way to bet that prices will go back up in the medium term?
(04-20-2020, 01:02 PM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]Holy shit, is oil under a dollar a barrel right now? Am I seeing things?
How are the oil company share prices not tanking along side??
And what is the most straightforward way to bet that prices will go back up in the medium term?
May futures contracts for WTI expire tomorrow, and unlike Brent crude futures, WTI requires physical delivery to the futures contract holder at expiry. There is no storage left at Cushing, hence cratering prices on the contracts that expire tomorrow.
This is the sort of market force that leads to bankruptcies (CHK, come on down!) and shut-ins, and eventually gets crude prices back to something that isn't $0 (which is pretty much the current effective price of WTI).
USO rolled out of May contracts more than a week ago, so wasn't caught by today's drop. The question is, how bad do they contango in the near-term as demand stays moribund and oversupply remains.
Likewise, big producers like XOM/CVX aren't really affected by today's price action on expiring contracts. Their share prices have already taken a massive beating, because the reality of what is happening right now was clear several weeks ago (and is largely priced in).
Thanks Otter!
Now, can you or anyone else talk to me like I'm six years old and explain it again? So the sub-dollar prices I'm seeing are only for... what,... "May 20" contracts? Those expire today / tomorrow? Or next month?
I'm a total oil noob -- I guess I need a primer!
negative $6.5 per barrel now.
Greenpeace better keep their eyes open, someone will be soon buying and dumping it all in a swamp somewhere.